* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 05/18/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 21 23 27 35 44 49 52 54 55 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 21 23 27 35 44 49 52 54 55 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 21 20 19 18 18 17 17 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 6 6 6 3 3 4 10 8 12 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 -2 -2 2 0 3 0 1 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 121 153 165 181 203 298 323 338 341 9 337 345 1 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.5 29.9 29.4 27.9 28.4 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 161 158 158 162 156 141 146 149 147 143 141 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 -52.6 -53.2 -52.6 -53.1 -52.2 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 9 9 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 76 73 71 69 66 68 71 71 75 73 75 74 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 27 31 41 44 42 44 36 45 28 27 19 29 26 200 MB DIV 52 49 48 50 34 47 66 74 89 102 105 107 80 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 407 358 356 380 409 485 557 596 550 493 454 416 394 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.6 11.4 11.0 10.6 9.7 8.8 8.1 7.5 7.3 7.2 7.3 7.4 LONG(DEG W) 94.3 93.8 93.4 93.0 92.7 92.2 91.6 90.9 90.1 89.3 88.7 88.3 88.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 31 31 28 24 21 18 17 14 13 11 10 11 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -4. 0. 8. 17. 27. 33. 37. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 15. 24. 29. 32. 34. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.4 94.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 05/18/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 147.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.99 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.24 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 26.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.9% 60.1% 58.4% 36.2% 26.2% 67.0% 47.2% 85.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 9.0% 2.3% 0.7% 0.6% 11.2% 11.6% 2.0% Consensus: 4.4% 23.1% 20.2% 12.3% 8.9% 26.1% 19.6% 29.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 05/18/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX