* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 05/17/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 34 42 49 56 60 62 64 62 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 27 34 42 49 56 60 62 64 62 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 24 28 30 31 31 31 31 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 2 5 7 8 2 1 6 9 14 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -1 -4 -5 -4 -2 3 0 -3 -1 1 2 SHEAR DIR 192 190 136 113 114 116 159 325 331 344 359 340 345 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.7 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 163 164 163 161 161 152 151 150 148 145 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 78 76 76 75 73 70 68 70 70 72 72 73 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -6 -1 5 7 23 25 36 33 27 26 25 31 200 MB DIV 106 109 94 78 69 75 81 92 73 87 83 119 122 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 639 615 602 600 612 599 631 689 696 618 538 463 390 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.2 9.6 8.8 7.9 7.1 6.5 6.3 6.4 6.8 LONG(DEG W) 97.0 96.8 96.6 96.4 95.9 94.7 93.6 92.6 91.4 90.1 88.8 87.7 87.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 3 6 7 6 7 7 7 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 45 45 43 42 38 32 29 25 21 12 9 11 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -4. -1. 7. 17. 27. 34. 38. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 22. 29. 36. 40. 42. 44. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.0 97.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 05/17/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.95 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.39 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.66 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 15.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.1% 44.1% 40.9% 20.8% 13.6% 49.8% 85.5% 94.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 6.4% 4.7% 1.4% 0.2% 2.3% 2.8% 37.4% Consensus: 2.4% 16.8% 15.2% 7.4% 4.6% 17.4% 29.4% 44.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 05/17/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX