* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 05/17/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 27 31 40 50 59 65 67 69 73 75 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 27 31 40 50 59 65 67 69 73 75 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 24 28 34 41 46 47 46 45 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 3 2 3 3 8 6 7 5 2 3 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -3 -3 -3 0 2 3 5 3 4 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 96 88 119 89 57 97 105 147 178 230 319 50 88 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 158 158 160 159 159 158 156 154 155 158 158 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.3 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.1 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 9 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 73 71 70 66 65 57 54 56 59 63 67 66 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -19 -12 -12 -20 -25 -20 0 3 17 13 3 -9 200 MB DIV 91 86 118 123 71 26 0 27 45 70 87 79 103 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 2 2 2 0 LAND (KM) 832 840 829 823 813 788 799 827 887 943 988 980 969 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.7 9.8 10.0 9.8 9.4 8.7 8.0 7.4 7.3 7.2 LONG(DEG W) 101.5 101.9 102.1 102.2 102.2 102.1 101.9 101.6 101.3 100.9 100.3 99.5 98.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 1 2 1 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 60 66 70 71 72 74 72 63 48 40 37 36 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. 1. 8. 17. 27. 33. 38. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 6. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 20. 30. 39. 45. 47. 49. 53. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.3 101.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 05/17/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.91 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 67.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.69 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.10 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 38.9% 35.2% 18.2% 8.3% 39.4% 49.7% 75.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 9.9% 9.0% 1.8% 0.1% 0.5% 2.1% 0.6% Consensus: 1.8% 16.3% 14.7% 6.7% 2.8% 13.3% 17.3% 25.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 05/17/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX