* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 05/16/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 29 37 48 57 64 67 67 65 64 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 29 37 48 57 64 67 67 65 64 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 23 26 30 35 37 37 34 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 6 6 3 2 4 5 7 8 10 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 13 11 5 1 2 -1 4 5 8 6 5 2 SHEAR DIR 56 79 86 120 133 70 85 144 162 209 224 232 227 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 157 156 157 158 159 157 158 155 153 154 154 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 72 72 73 73 69 65 58 57 54 55 56 61 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -9 -8 -13 -10 -18 -33 -30 -14 -9 7 11 7 200 MB DIV 87 103 95 103 108 96 38 5 18 52 72 94 96 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -3 0 0 -1 -1 1 2 2 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 808 834 858 867 875 867 836 827 843 870 922 944 968 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 8.9 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.4 9.7 9.7 9.5 9.1 8.5 8.1 7.7 LONG(DEG W) 100.0 100.5 101.1 101.6 102.0 102.5 102.5 102.3 102.2 101.9 101.7 101.2 100.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 4 2 2 1 2 3 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 43 45 50 55 59 66 70 71 68 58 48 42 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 13.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 1. 8. 17. 27. 33. 38. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 10. 10. 10. 7. 5. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 18. 28. 37. 44. 47. 47. 45. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.0 100.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 05/16/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.91 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.46 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 31.1% 24.7% 12.5% 0.9% 47.8% 21.3% 54.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% Consensus: 1.2% 10.9% 8.5% 4.2% 0.3% 15.9% 7.3% 18.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 05/16/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX