* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 05/16/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 37 46 56 63 65 64 62 61 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 37 46 56 63 65 64 62 61 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 30 33 34 33 30 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 3 4 7 5 2 3 6 11 13 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 3 12 10 2 7 0 2 5 4 4 5 SHEAR DIR 74 80 63 56 63 91 130 134 187 225 233 219 213 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 158 158 158 159 161 159 158 158 160 159 159 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 69 71 69 69 71 67 65 61 55 52 52 51 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 9 2 0 -2 -8 -15 -27 -31 -19 -7 -1 7 200 MB DIV 48 47 66 84 97 92 89 38 4 19 41 43 62 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -4 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 1 2 3 2 LAND (KM) 764 782 808 851 882 936 932 910 904 909 949 988 1034 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.5 9.9 10.0 10.0 9.7 9.4 8.9 LONG(DEG W) 99.6 100.2 100.9 101.7 102.4 103.6 104.2 104.6 104.7 104.8 105.0 105.2 105.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 7 7 4 3 2 1 1 2 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 44 43 45 48 50 52 56 60 60 61 64 66 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 1. 8. 17. 27. 33. 38. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 9. 6. 3. 0. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 26. 36. 43. 45. 44. 42. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.3 99.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 05/16/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.92 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 16.2% 10.5% 3.9% 0.4% 18.7% 26.4% 58.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.6% Consensus: 0.6% 5.8% 3.7% 1.3% 0.1% 6.2% 8.8% 20.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 05/16/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX