* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912018 10/22/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 25 24 23 25 26 22 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 25 24 23 25 26 22 16 DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 21 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 12 11 8 4 10 21 24 26 35 32 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 10 11 11 13 12 7 1 0 0 0 3 13 SHEAR DIR 40 31 33 43 58 348 274 277 274 270 265 262 261 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.7 27.1 27.9 28.2 28.8 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 131 130 135 144 147 153 145 145 145 144 147 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 49 50 51 53 53 56 55 57 57 58 53 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -42 -40 -53 -56 -50 -46 -24 -10 -5 -13 -8 16 200 MB DIV 1 2 -6 -39 -30 -35 4 36 43 26 12 54 46 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1437 1452 1487 1558 1635 1799 1965 2106 2198 2239 2222 2137 1991 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.4 11.2 10.8 10.4 10.0 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.2 11.9 LONG(DEG W) 116.4 116.5 116.8 117.4 118.1 120.2 122.5 124.7 126.3 127.2 127.3 126.6 125.4 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 5 8 9 11 11 10 6 3 2 5 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 16 16 18 37 29 18 12 12 11 8 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 774 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 1. -2. -7. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 3. 0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -7. -8. -11. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. 0. 1. -3. -9. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 116.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912018 INVEST 10/22/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.56 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.13 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.10 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.72 -2.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.02 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.32 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.6% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 7.6% 5.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912018 INVEST 10/22/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX