* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912018 10/22/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 24 26 26 26 30 33 30 25 24 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 24 26 26 26 30 33 30 25 24 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 21 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 9 11 9 2 7 19 22 22 34 33 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 11 11 12 11 11 7 2 1 1 -3 0 2 SHEAR DIR 104 55 34 40 54 50 286 272 275 266 267 264 257 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.6 26.8 27.8 28.1 29.1 28.5 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 131 128 131 142 145 155 149 144 143 143 145 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 48 49 49 49 50 55 58 57 58 60 60 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 4 4 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -38 -39 -39 -43 -41 -35 -28 -9 -1 -11 -12 0 200 MB DIV -10 4 1 -4 -31 -35 -34 28 51 40 1 24 44 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1438 1443 1463 1519 1582 1724 1884 2016 2127 2187 2200 2168 2069 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.6 11.5 11.2 10.9 10.4 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.4 LONG(DEG W) 116.6 116.7 116.9 117.4 118.0 119.6 121.6 123.6 125.4 126.6 127.0 126.8 125.9 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 4 6 7 10 10 9 8 4 1 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 16 16 15 34 33 24 13 10 10 9 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 787 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -4. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -1. -2. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 1. 1. 5. 8. 5. 0. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.6 116.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912018 INVEST 10/22/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 2.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.60 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.13 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.13 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.71 -1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.71 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.16 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.5% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 4.6% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 3.1% 0.0% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912018 INVEST 10/22/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX