* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912018 10/22/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 26 29 30 33 33 32 27 24 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 26 29 30 33 33 32 27 24 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 23 22 21 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 6 8 12 10 8 4 11 18 25 29 37 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 9 12 13 10 8 7 7 3 0 -1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 103 90 24 24 29 50 350 272 268 268 261 265 265 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.6 26.6 27.0 27.8 28.1 28.1 28.9 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 127 127 132 141 145 145 153 146 145 145 147 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 48 50 50 50 51 52 57 56 57 57 57 55 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -26 -34 -40 -35 -33 -33 -36 -14 3 4 -6 4 200 MB DIV -15 -2 0 -2 -7 -10 -19 6 37 58 4 -3 21 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1473 1473 1508 1559 1606 1743 1881 2032 2139 2220 2262 2238 2137 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.4 11.2 10.9 10.7 10.2 9.9 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.7 11.2 LONG(DEG W) 116.9 116.9 117.2 117.6 118.1 119.6 121.3 123.3 125.2 126.6 127.4 127.4 126.6 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 4 5 6 8 9 10 8 5 2 2 7 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 17 17 17 33 28 26 15 13 14 12 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 806 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 23. 27. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. -2. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 4. 1. -2. -6. -8. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 8. 8. 7. 2. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 116.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912018 INVEST 10/22/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 2.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.56 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.14 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.24 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.72 -1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.80 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.21 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 3.6% 1.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 4.8% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912018 INVEST 10/22/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX