* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912018 10/22/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 26 26 31 32 35 36 35 31 30 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 26 26 31 32 35 36 35 31 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 23 22 21 20 18 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 9 12 12 12 7 7 16 23 26 28 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 6 8 8 6 7 10 8 2 2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 104 96 71 45 37 43 53 284 275 276 269 267 278 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.6 27.8 27.6 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 127 129 132 139 142 140 151 147 142 137 138 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 47 49 51 49 52 53 56 56 54 53 53 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -28 -29 -39 -38 -36 -33 -43 -38 -9 -6 -16 -14 200 MB DIV -37 -12 -11 -9 -11 -29 -5 -18 -1 23 6 -3 20 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1513 1513 1543 1588 1629 1737 1883 2045 2179 2277 2348 2401 2378 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.1 10.9 10.6 10.4 10.0 9.5 9.3 9.4 9.7 9.9 9.9 10.1 LONG(DEG W) 117.1 117.1 117.3 117.6 118.0 119.2 120.8 122.9 125.0 126.8 128.0 128.7 128.6 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 3 4 5 7 9 11 10 7 5 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 17 17 19 31 25 26 22 15 17 18 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 785 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 23. 27. 30. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -2. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 8. 5. 2. -1. -4. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 6. 7. 10. 11. 10. 6. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.1 117.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912018 INVEST 10/22/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 1.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.45 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.15 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.26 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.71 -0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.87 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.14 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.2% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 7.5% 2.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 5.3% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1% 2.5% 0.0% 1.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912018 INVEST 10/22/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX