* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912018 08/31/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 51 61 74 84 97 101 105 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 51 61 74 84 97 101 105 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 31 36 42 49 59 70 77 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 10 12 9 12 8 9 17 17 15 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 3 3 2 0 0 5 3 6 7 6 3 SHEAR DIR 33 18 20 26 44 16 17 37 47 29 22 32 51 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 164 165 165 163 161 160 159 160 160 160 154 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.2 -51.9 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 5 700-500 MB RH 85 82 82 82 80 76 71 71 70 68 68 62 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 9 10 9 12 13 16 20 27 29 32 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -6 -1 -6 -11 -17 -16 -2 2 31 46 39 60 200 MB DIV 72 96 100 91 67 68 69 73 65 65 92 22 35 700-850 TADV 0 0 -4 -5 0 -5 -2 -3 -3 -6 -13 -13 -11 LAND (KM) 606 618 627 649 668 740 784 833 869 896 918 985 1105 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.2 15.7 16.1 16.0 16.0 16.1 16.7 17.5 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.3 108.0 108.8 109.5 110.8 112.0 113.1 113.9 114.6 115.8 117.7 120.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 7 7 6 4 3 5 8 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 39 35 29 24 22 24 27 29 24 17 10 9 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 7. 16. 25. 31. 35. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 4. 9. 14. 24. 26. 31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 26. 36. 49. 59. 72. 76. 80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.9 106.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912018 INVEST 08/31/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.91 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.51 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.27 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.62 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 5.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.89 -4.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.77 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.0% 21.3% 0.0% 0.0% 18.5% 21.3% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 26.8% 16.3% 7.9% 2.0% 29.8% 46.8% 38.8% Bayesian: 0.5% 5.8% 3.7% 0.8% 0.1% 2.4% 6.0% 9.9% Consensus: 1.5% 18.5% 13.7% 2.9% 0.7% 16.9% 24.7% 16.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 12.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 13.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912018 INVEST 08/31/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX