* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912018 08/31/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 33 41 49 58 68 76 82 87 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 33 41 49 58 68 76 82 87 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 30 32 34 37 42 47 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 13 9 10 16 16 17 18 21 24 27 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 0 0 4 0 3 0 5 2 4 1 6 SHEAR DIR 40 39 29 29 26 360 3 6 22 45 55 61 45 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 164 164 164 164 162 160 157 154 152 151 156 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.2 -53.7 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 86 87 85 83 81 79 77 74 73 72 72 69 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 9 10 13 15 17 20 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -7 6 4 -2 -13 -33 -25 -12 15 30 44 47 200 MB DIV 80 58 70 99 101 61 63 81 88 96 87 83 82 700-850 TADV -2 1 0 0 -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 -1 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 592 581 587 615 648 730 855 958 1065 1187 1287 1295 1184 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.8 14.9 14.7 14.1 13.2 12.3 12.1 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 105.6 106.1 106.7 107.4 108.2 109.9 111.5 112.8 114.0 114.7 114.9 114.6 114.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 2 7 HEAT CONTENT 42 41 39 35 31 24 30 27 16 12 12 13 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 7. 16. 25. 31. 35. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 5. 9. 12. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 16. 24. 33. 43. 51. 57. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 105.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912018 INVEST 08/31/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.41 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.34 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.61 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -0.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.90 -4.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.81 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.2% 20.9% 0.0% 0.0% 17.6% 19.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 5.5% 2.4% 0.9% 0.1% 6.1% 21.8% 24.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 5.2% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 5.9% Consensus: 0.2% 11.3% 8.4% 0.5% 0.1% 7.9% 13.9% 10.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 17.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912018 INVEST 08/31/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX