* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912018 08/31/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 33 35 41 48 56 64 70 73 74 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 33 35 41 48 56 64 70 73 74 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 31 33 35 37 39 41 44 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 17 16 12 17 17 19 20 22 24 24 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 4 0 1 0 0 1 4 3 0 2 2 SHEAR DIR 32 28 30 34 41 20 6 10 15 41 53 51 38 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 161 161 163 163 162 160 157 155 153 153 158 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.2 -54.0 -52.9 -53.6 -52.9 -53.9 -53.3 -54.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 83 86 87 85 83 81 78 77 76 76 72 71 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -27 -9 5 7 -3 -20 -28 -4 10 26 46 45 200 MB DIV 57 78 71 90 111 78 66 76 102 74 88 75 71 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -4 -3 -2 -2 -1 -2 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 618 592 595 618 637 711 799 929 1052 1136 1201 1167 1055 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.4 14.3 13.9 13.3 12.7 12.7 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 105.1 105.4 106.0 106.6 107.2 108.8 110.4 111.9 113.1 113.7 113.8 113.4 112.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 6 7 8 7 7 5 3 2 3 7 HEAT CONTENT 45 43 42 42 40 31 27 37 23 17 18 25 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 796 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 1. 8. 16. 25. 31. 35. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -8. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 16. 23. 31. 39. 45. 48. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.9 105.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912018 INVEST 08/31/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.88 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.23 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.39 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.60 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -7.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.91 -4.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.70 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.7% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.9% 19.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 2.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 4.1% 17.6% 25.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.1% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 9.2% Consensus: 0.1% 9.9% 7.6% 0.2% 0.0% 7.4% 12.3% 11.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912018 INVEST 08/31/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX