* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912018 07/26/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 38 39 40 43 42 40 34 31 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 38 39 40 43 42 40 34 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 28 27 26 24 21 18 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 8 9 14 10 18 18 15 15 21 27 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 3 7 4 1 3 6 11 7 7 2 1 SHEAR DIR 340 297 251 277 311 303 283 282 264 248 255 248 251 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.2 27.5 27.2 27.3 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.5 24.9 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 145 138 141 136 137 126 127 128 128 112 107 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.3 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -54.5 -54.5 -55.1 -55.2 -55.7 -55.9 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 68 66 66 66 65 64 64 61 59 57 56 54 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 10 11 12 14 15 14 15 14 14 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -22 -16 -10 -13 -24 -23 -23 -13 -2 7 2 -4 200 MB DIV 55 52 51 50 35 35 29 7 20 36 -4 -10 2 700-850 TADV -3 -8 -15 -20 -17 -11 -12 -8 -6 -1 -1 5 8 LAND (KM) 1629 1690 1756 1855 1961 2146 2276 2317 2202 2083 1939 1749 1541 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.2 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.3 16.1 17.2 18.3 19.6 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 121.2 122.7 124.1 125.6 127.1 129.9 131.9 133.4 134.3 135.2 136.4 138.1 140.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 15 15 11 9 7 6 7 9 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 13 19 23 26 25 5 5 2 4 9 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 23. 27. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 6. 9. 8. 8. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 14. 15. 18. 17. 15. 9. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 121.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912018 INVEST 07/26/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.61 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.18 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.43 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.75 -3.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.64 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.8% 19.1% 0.0% 0.0% 14.7% 15.4% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 16.0% 7.6% 3.5% 0.6% 2.9% 1.3% 3.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 12.9% 9.1% 1.2% 0.2% 5.9% 5.6% 1.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912018 INVEST 07/26/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX