* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912018 07/26/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 42 49 56 60 58 56 49 45 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 42 49 56 60 58 56 49 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 35 37 37 35 32 29 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 8 9 8 13 8 7 5 16 21 32 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 2 -3 1 3 0 7 8 6 4 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 33 357 313 298 286 318 321 281 232 212 215 234 235 SST (C) 28.6 28.2 28.3 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.8 27.2 27.1 26.1 26.3 24.7 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 149 154 152 147 142 135 134 125 128 111 107 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -53.4 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.9 -55.3 -55.7 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 65 65 65 64 64 65 65 66 63 62 60 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 13 15 17 17 15 15 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -22 -25 -22 -13 -9 -5 -10 -16 -8 0 -18 -35 200 MB DIV 13 43 64 57 31 22 52 38 22 10 31 35 16 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -5 -9 -13 -14 -12 -15 -7 -4 2 7 14 LAND (KM) 1510 1614 1700 1772 1841 2022 2156 2237 2267 2233 2038 1820 1581 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.5 14.0 14.6 15.6 17.0 18.8 20.4 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 118.5 120.3 121.9 123.4 124.7 127.4 129.6 131.3 132.6 133.8 135.4 137.4 139.8 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 15 14 13 12 10 8 8 10 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 26 19 16 25 25 17 8 5 2 1 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 28. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 9. 10. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 17. 24. 31. 35. 33. 31. 24. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 118.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912018 INVEST 07/26/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.70 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.19 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.75 -2.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.38 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.7% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 15.8% 0.0% Logistic: 8.8% 33.6% 17.9% 10.4% 2.5% 9.8% 7.4% 13.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 12.6% 2.6% 0.6% 0.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% Consensus: 3.0% 22.6% 11.7% 3.7% 0.9% 8.6% 7.9% 4.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912018 INVEST 07/26/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX