* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP912018 06/06/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 46 53 63 71 80 84 82 84 78 71 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 46 53 63 71 80 84 82 84 78 71 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 50 59 69 76 81 83 77 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 4 6 6 13 5 11 15 12 15 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 0 2 -2 4 6 7 0 -2 5 16 SHEAR DIR 263 259 251 351 301 295 282 357 59 92 119 137 156 SST (C) 29.9 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.8 28.4 27.9 28.7 28.0 26.5 27.0 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 163 160 158 159 161 164 150 144 149 145 129 130 128 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -51.4 -52.3 -50.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -50.5 -50.4 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 72 70 73 74 76 77 65 61 73 78 66 63 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 32 34 33 37 37 35 850 MB ENV VOR 9 10 10 8 4 20 63 58 53 66 103 118 121 200 MB DIV 124 133 141 152 143 82 77 25 31 18 65 10 56 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -3 -2 -3 -5 -5 -11 -2 -1 1 0 5 LAND (KM) 523 548 633 685 685 524 443 764 900 722 673 806 668 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 13.8 13.3 13.0 14.1 16.1 15.1 13.6 15.1 17.2 16.3 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.2 107.0 107.1 106.6 105.6 107.4 110.6 110.9 110.1 112.2 113.2 112.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 6 4 5 12 15 13 4 12 11 3 10 HEAT CONTENT 46 38 45 59 67 42 15 22 45 19 5 6 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 57.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 13. 20. 25. 28. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -9. -8. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 22. 24. 22. 26. 24. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 16. 23. 33. 41. 50. 54. 52. 54. 48. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.0 105.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912018 TWO 06/06/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 6.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 7.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 9.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 51.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.48 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 138.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.91 7.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 5.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 73.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 3.5 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.9 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.3 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 49% is 6.1 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 52% is 7.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 40% is 7.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.2% 52.9% 40.7% 31.9% 0.0% 49.4% 52.5% 39.7% Logistic: 16.5% 53.5% 47.9% 43.9% 33.8% 57.9% 66.9% 35.7% Bayesian: 5.2% 41.9% 21.2% 8.6% 4.4% 23.7% 27.8% 29.1% Consensus: 13.6% 49.4% 36.6% 28.2% 12.8% 43.7% 49.1% 34.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912018 TWO 06/06/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##