* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912018 06/05/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 42 55 64 71 79 83 83 81 77 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 35 42 55 64 71 79 83 83 81 77 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 30 35 39 45 51 57 62 64 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 7 4 4 11 6 9 12 14 7 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 4 3 2 2 5 0 6 10 4 -3 2 11 SHEAR DIR 296 269 277 323 335 282 298 338 34 60 109 133 178 SST (C) 30.1 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 28.7 27.7 28.6 28.8 27.1 26.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 162 160 159 160 162 153 143 149 153 136 129 128 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -51.4 -51.8 -51.3 -51.3 -50.8 -50.2 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 6 7 6 5 6 7 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 72 73 72 75 76 74 69 61 68 80 76 64 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 19 21 25 27 29 33 35 36 36 37 850 MB ENV VOR -5 5 1 4 5 15 45 51 60 48 88 98 112 200 MB DIV 99 123 132 131 153 93 57 12 33 55 58 26 13 700-850 TADV -4 -9 -9 -5 -3 -9 -5 -7 -4 -2 -1 0 2 LAND (KM) 552 564 622 673 711 609 513 720 971 877 727 750 785 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 13.6 13.3 12.9 13.5 15.4 15.5 13.7 13.6 16.3 16.9 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 105.0 105.8 106.5 106.9 106.9 106.1 107.5 110.4 111.9 110.6 111.1 113.3 113.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 4 3 8 13 14 7 10 14 7 2 HEAT CONTENT 64 50 52 59 68 57 18 18 30 48 16 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 37.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -0. 5. 14. 22. 28. 31. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -6. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 6. 12. 16. 18. 24. 25. 25. 24. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 17. 30. 39. 46. 54. 58. 58. 56. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 105.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912018 INVEST 06/05/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.88 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 6.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 58.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.55 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 127.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.85 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 2.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.58 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 52.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.84 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.4 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 34% is 4.2 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 39% is 5.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 30.4% 24.7% 0.0% 0.0% 34.0% 39.5% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 37.8% 28.6% 21.0% 11.3% 43.3% 55.1% 32.4% Bayesian: 3.2% 24.0% 6.8% 1.7% 0.4% 7.0% 16.0% 17.0% Consensus: 3.1% 30.7% 20.0% 7.6% 3.9% 28.1% 36.9% 16.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912018 INVEST 06/05/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##