* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912018 06/05/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 42 55 67 76 81 84 84 82 77 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 42 55 67 76 81 84 84 82 77 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 30 32 35 40 45 50 56 61 63 63 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 3 12 17 12 8 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 4 0 2 3 2 3 5 2 2 13 SHEAR DIR 305 282 265 278 324 296 287 17 4 39 70 110 151 SST (C) 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 28.8 27.8 28.5 27.8 26.9 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 167 165 163 162 160 157 160 153 143 145 142 132 125 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -51.7 -52.1 -52.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 -51.9 -51.3 -51.4 -50.3 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 74 72 73 73 74 75 77 69 66 73 80 71 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 15 15 19 23 26 29 32 35 35 37 38 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -5 5 2 4 3 23 42 56 63 75 94 116 200 MB DIV 61 98 127 122 130 123 101 32 2 52 48 56 -1 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -6 -8 -4 -5 -6 -6 -7 -2 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 570 535 547 585 646 692 636 598 820 973 861 751 741 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.5 13.7 13.7 13.4 13.1 13.7 15.0 14.9 13.9 14.8 16.6 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 104.0 104.6 105.3 106.0 106.6 106.9 106.9 108.3 111.1 112.1 111.5 112.6 113.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 5 1 7 12 11 2 9 8 5 HEAT CONTENT 84 68 56 52 57 65 48 17 26 26 27 8 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 35.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -0. 5. 14. 22. 28. 31. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 18. 23. 27. 30. 29. 28. 27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 17. 30. 42. 51. 56. 59. 59. 57. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 104.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912018 INVEST 06/05/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 63.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.59 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.74 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.25 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.64 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 52.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.84 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 1.7 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.2 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 43% is 5.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.9% 22.4% 0.0% 0.0% 30.8% 43.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 15.9% 11.2% 8.2% 3.5% 29.3% 42.3% 31.5% Bayesian: 4.2% 6.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 21.9% 44.4% Consensus: 2.5% 16.0% 11.3% 2.7% 1.2% 20.3% 35.7% 25.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912018 INVEST 06/05/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##