* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912018 06/05/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 38 52 62 71 77 82 83 82 77 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 35 38 52 62 71 77 82 83 82 77 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 30 32 35 41 45 49 53 58 62 62 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 10 9 11 7 8 1 6 12 15 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 3 3 0 5 1 0 2 4 3 11 SHEAR DIR 356 333 313 296 299 283 279 316 14 25 60 59 135 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.1 29.8 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.0 27.7 27.6 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 166 165 164 161 158 155 151 143 139 137 132 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -51.6 -51.3 -50.9 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 74 74 74 75 74 75 71 72 70 69 74 74 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 13 15 15 21 24 27 29 34 36 37 38 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -7 0 2 4 19 24 34 41 60 75 92 97 200 MB DIV 65 70 90 120 118 123 87 78 11 36 51 43 33 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -5 -7 -2 -11 -6 -5 -4 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 676 667 637 602 577 560 604 684 748 808 880 887 740 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.9 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.7 15.0 15.3 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 103.7 104.1 104.5 104.7 105.1 105.9 107.1 108.5 109.5 110.8 111.9 112.6 112.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 6 5 7 5 4 9 HEAT CONTENT 76 78 80 78 69 46 35 29 31 26 24 17 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 35.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 14. 22. 29. 32. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 12. 17. 21. 24. 29. 30. 30. 28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 13. 27. 37. 46. 52. 57. 58. 57. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 103.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912018 INVEST 06/05/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.92 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.57 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 76.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.71 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.66 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 2.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 43.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 1.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 36% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 44% is 5.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 28.7% 24.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35.8% 43.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 15.6% 10.6% 9.6% 5.0% 22.3% 39.5% 38.5% Bayesian: 1.1% 9.9% 3.2% 0.6% 0.2% 4.6% 27.2% 40.0% Consensus: 1.5% 18.1% 12.6% 3.4% 1.7% 20.9% 36.9% 26.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912018 INVEST 06/05/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##