* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912018 06/05/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 32 38 52 69 78 86 91 96 94 87 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 32 38 52 69 78 86 91 96 94 87 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 27 35 46 57 68 80 92 94 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 7 6 2 8 7 6 4 6 12 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -4 1 -1 2 -3 0 0 -2 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 334 3 14 7 14 337 286 324 23 67 85 76 84 SST (C) 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 29.7 29.2 28.9 28.1 27.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 169 167 166 163 162 164 164 161 155 153 144 137 134 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -51.9 -52.7 -51.5 -52.4 -51.3 -51.7 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 6 6 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 73 74 75 75 76 77 75 74 69 67 69 68 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 11 12 14 19 21 25 28 33 34 33 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -15 -14 -10 0 15 30 33 42 44 57 74 85 200 MB DIV 92 69 54 69 102 113 153 121 100 34 26 34 32 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -4 -3 -2 -3 -2 -3 -5 -8 -4 -4 0 LAND (KM) 677 686 694 682 675 623 548 541 605 690 745 822 835 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.7 13.5 14.1 14.4 14.4 14.9 15.7 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 103.5 104.1 104.6 104.9 105.0 104.7 104.9 105.9 107.4 108.9 110.2 111.8 113.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 4 2 1 4 5 7 7 7 8 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 79 82 83 82 82 81 64 41 30 25 20 19 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 48.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -2. 4. 14. 24. 31. 36. 38. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 12. 15. 20. 23. 28. 28. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 12. 18. 32. 49. 58. 66. 71. 76. 74. 67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.7 103.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912018 INVEST 06/05/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.96 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 81.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.58 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 35.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.4% 60.8% 46.1% 42.1% 31.5% 79.4% 86.6% 83.4% Bayesian: 1.7% 22.9% 10.5% 4.8% 1.1% 7.8% 20.4% 49.5% Consensus: 5.4% 27.9% 18.9% 15.6% 10.9% 29.1% 35.7% 44.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912018 INVEST 06/05/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##