* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912018 06/04/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 27 31 44 57 71 77 86 89 92 87 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 27 31 44 57 71 77 86 89 92 87 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 24 29 36 44 52 60 68 76 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 6 4 4 7 2 5 7 6 1 3 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -2 -1 2 0 0 2 5 3 3 0 SHEAR DIR 309 337 10 17 343 326 271 254 307 330 343 87 76 SST (C) 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.3 30.0 29.8 29.4 28.3 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 168 168 168 169 169 166 164 160 158 147 141 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.2 -52.8 -51.5 -52.2 -51.0 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 70 72 73 75 77 76 75 72 71 71 70 64 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 12 14 19 21 27 30 33 33 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -16 -16 -17 -11 3 15 45 31 39 39 64 72 200 MB DIV 74 81 95 99 75 90 91 148 120 101 54 34 33 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -2 -4 -1 -1 -2 -6 -4 -6 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 715 706 700 678 662 566 495 460 465 504 477 476 599 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.3 11.5 12.4 13.1 13.8 14.1 14.2 14.9 16.1 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 101.6 102.1 102.4 102.6 102.7 102.6 102.6 103.3 104.4 105.4 106.1 107.9 109.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 4 8 9 5 HEAT CONTENT 52 61 66 70 72 74 78 79 53 40 28 14 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 21.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -3. 3. 13. 24. 32. 37. 39. 40. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 4. 7. 14. 17. 23. 25. 27. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 24. 37. 51. 57. 66. 69. 72. 67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.5 101.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912018 INVEST 06/04/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 148.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.99 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 64.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.62 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 34.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912018 INVEST 06/04/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##