* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912017 10/17/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 28 26 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 28 26 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 26 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 57 61 56 52 50 51 47 31 30 35 32 29 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -14 -15 -5 -4 -2 -4 -3 5 5 8 12 5 6 SHEAR DIR 292 292 286 279 268 277 281 284 258 252 249 243 233 SST (C) 23.8 23.3 22.9 22.7 22.5 22.4 22.6 23.1 23.3 23.2 23.1 23.3 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 102 95 90 88 85 84 86 90 92 92 91 93 99 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 51 51 50 49 47 44 38 34 31 31 27 22 18 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 4 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -36 -54 -62 -72 -94 -83 -74 -71 -35 -40 -17 -11 200 MB DIV 46 34 12 -10 -29 -21 -28 -71 7 24 -7 -18 -21 700-850 TADV 19 13 13 9 3 0 -10 -2 -6 -10 -1 -4 12 LAND (KM) 1232 1235 1196 1119 1052 927 836 785 751 679 587 566 642 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 23.0 23.8 24.5 25.0 25.3 25.0 24.4 24.1 24.2 24.1 23.6 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 125.5 126.1 126.1 125.6 125.1 123.9 122.8 121.9 121.3 120.5 119.2 118.3 118.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 9 8 8 6 5 6 4 3 5 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 836 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -8. -20. -35. -49. -61. -67. -65. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -4. -7. -16. -29. -46. -61. -71. -76. -77. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.1 125.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912017 INVEST 10/17/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.20 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 55.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 47.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 198.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912017 INVEST 10/17/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##