* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912017 10/16/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 30 29 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 30 29 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 31 30 28 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 38 45 51 46 44 46 38 29 37 39 38 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -6 -7 -10 -2 -2 -3 2 5 6 9 12 7 SHEAR DIR 274 282 289 293 293 275 279 281 275 259 263 262 264 SST (C) 25.7 24.9 24.3 23.8 23.4 22.9 22.9 23.0 23.1 22.9 22.8 23.1 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 122 112 105 100 95 89 88 89 89 89 89 93 98 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 55 54 52 51 50 49 45 38 35 31 32 28 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -30 -33 -44 -66 -68 -77 -70 -77 -75 -33 -38 -17 200 MB DIV 47 49 53 48 0 -44 -40 -29 -69 13 9 -12 -31 700-850 TADV 10 14 20 14 10 3 0 -11 -2 -12 -9 -7 -8 LAND (KM) 1196 1190 1157 1116 1066 955 891 842 799 713 574 462 397 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.8 21.7 22.6 23.3 24.4 24.6 24.5 24.3 24.6 24.8 24.7 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 123.0 123.9 124.3 124.5 124.4 123.8 123.2 122.6 122.0 121.2 119.7 118.1 116.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 8 7 5 3 3 2 6 7 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 35.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -15. -29. -41. -52. -59. -60. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -5. -13. -24. -38. -52. -61. -67. -71. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.9 123.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912017 INVEST 10/16/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.08 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 48.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.6 2.2 to -1.9 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 209.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912017 INVEST 10/16/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##