* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912017 10/16/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 23 29 39 44 39 39 40 40 37 46 56 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -5 -6 0 0 0 0 7 4 2 0 SHEAR DIR 253 261 269 282 290 284 264 271 274 258 245 249 262 SST (C) 27.2 26.2 25.5 24.8 24.3 23.5 23.0 22.7 22.5 22.1 21.4 21.8 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 127 119 111 105 96 90 86 84 82 77 82 111 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -55.1 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 700-500 MB RH 59 55 54 53 51 49 48 47 40 37 36 39 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 -13 -19 -27 -64 -67 -87 -93 -87 -60 -32 11 200 MB DIV 23 53 60 41 47 -20 -13 -17 -5 -30 61 62 19 700-850 TADV 4 9 9 17 26 10 6 3 -1 -3 -17 -27 -20 LAND (KM) 1168 1221 1223 1228 1210 1136 1044 983 940 824 582 263 -31 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 19.2 20.0 20.7 21.4 22.7 23.9 24.6 25.2 26.1 27.2 28.1 28.6 LONG(DEG W) 121.1 122.5 123.5 124.3 124.7 124.8 124.5 124.2 124.0 123.1 120.9 117.7 113.7 STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 11 9 8 6 5 3 4 9 13 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 17 CX,CY: -13/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 761 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 16. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -10. -21. -35. -46. -55. -59. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 3. -3. -12. -25. -39. -50. -57. -64. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.2 121.1 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912017 INVEST 10/16/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.41 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 41.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.34 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 163.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912017 INVEST 10/16/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##