* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912017 10/15/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 28 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 28 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 23 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 15 22 27 24 20 20 21 24 36 55 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -4 -4 0 -1 -4 -3 3 7 1 0 SHEAR DIR 287 274 281 296 308 305 294 262 262 249 225 223 231 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.8 25.7 24.6 24.0 23.6 23.2 22.6 22.0 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 142 138 135 131 120 107 100 96 93 89 83 79 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.6 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 4 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 62 58 51 49 45 38 37 38 43 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 9 7 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -1 -14 -29 -37 -57 -60 -59 -90 -85 -117 -81 -26 200 MB DIV 33 37 50 34 24 -26 -33 -20 -10 23 42 69 60 700-850 TADV -2 0 2 2 5 14 8 3 4 4 5 -16 -35 LAND (KM) 1264 1330 1359 1369 1346 1218 1122 1106 1156 1192 1103 829 494 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.9 19.8 21.3 22.1 22.5 23.3 24.9 26.7 27.4 LONG(DEG W) 120.0 121.3 122.1 122.6 123.0 123.2 123.5 124.0 124.9 125.8 125.6 123.4 120.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 7 7 9 10 6 4 5 6 11 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 791 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 21. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -7. -12. -18. -23. -30. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -8. -12. -11. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. -1. -6. -13. -18. -23. -30. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.0 120.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912017 INVEST 10/15/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.08 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.03 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 35.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.43 -0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.2 to -1.9 1.00 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 141.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.9% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 1.7% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912017 INVEST 10/15/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##