* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912017 10/15/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 33 35 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 33 35 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 8 12 23 25 41 47 50 50 41 56 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -2 -1 -3 3 -2 -3 0 1 9 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 292 299 288 264 280 278 280 261 265 261 254 241 247 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.0 25.2 23.3 22.5 22.2 22.0 21.5 20.8 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 145 142 135 117 95 86 81 79 76 71 73 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 65 64 63 60 55 53 50 46 41 38 41 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 12 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 1 -6 -15 -24 -40 -67 -59 -74 -60 -72 -42 -3 200 MB DIV 46 41 50 71 58 22 -24 -21 -5 6 -3 79 62 700-850 TADV -3 -2 1 5 9 21 11 10 4 -2 -5 -29 -45 LAND (KM) 1153 1198 1207 1198 1178 1055 950 902 860 811 679 418 9 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.9 16.5 17.3 18.4 21.1 23.5 25.2 26.2 26.7 27.5 29.2 31.0 LONG(DEG W) 117.6 118.8 119.8 120.6 121.4 122.4 123.2 123.6 123.5 123.2 122.3 120.2 116.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 12 14 14 10 7 4 3 9 16 20 HEAT CONTENT 24 10 3 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 16. 18. 19. 20. 19. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -11. -25. -39. -48. -53. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -5. -7. -11. -12. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 4. -5. -21. -36. -45. -51. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.4 117.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912017 INVEST 10/15/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.36 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.07 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.46 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 -0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.76 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 127.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.7 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.3% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 7.1% 4.2% 3.2% 3.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 6.0% 3.9% 1.1% 1.1% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912017 INVEST 10/15/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##