* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912017 10/14/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 40 43 42 38 32 23 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 40 43 42 38 32 23 15 DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 30 30 29 25 21 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 1 3 6 5 5 10 12 14 15 24 42 64 68 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -4 -4 0 0 0 0 0 1 -5 -12 SHEAR DIR 55 211 269 275 286 290 303 289 288 244 249 238 229 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.6 26.4 24.9 23.6 22.6 21.8 19.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 152 151 148 144 140 128 112 99 89 83 66 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.8 -53.2 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -54.8 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 4 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 71 68 67 67 68 64 60 53 53 58 63 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 14 13 12 9 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 35 30 22 18 -13 -34 -43 -70 -59 -86 -79 -29 200 MB DIV 72 92 95 72 59 34 -9 -14 -1 6 39 76 105 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -5 -2 -3 -3 1 9 9 18 18 33 -10 LAND (KM) 976 979 1046 1152 1247 1317 1289 1248 1228 1256 1251 987 488 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.4 15.6 15.6 15.5 15.7 16.9 18.9 20.6 22.3 24.5 27.6 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.9 116.3 117.8 119.0 120.4 121.4 122.6 124.2 125.9 127.0 126.7 123.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 13 10 6 10 12 11 12 13 19 24 HEAT CONTENT 16 21 20 18 10 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 7. 14. 20. 24. 26. 27. 26. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. -0. -7. -17. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 17. 13. 7. -2. -10. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.8 113.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912017 INVEST 10/14/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.85 6.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.16 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.59 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 2.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 94.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.1% 18.1% 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% 15.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 14.9% 10.6% 7.6% 3.7% 14.0% 9.2% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 13.4% 9.7% 2.5% 1.2% 10.8% 8.3% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912017 INVEST 10/14/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##