* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912017 10/14/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 39 46 52 55 56 51 46 38 38 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 39 46 52 55 56 51 46 38 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 37 39 39 37 32 27 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 9 6 7 4 11 11 9 13 17 28 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 0 -1 -3 0 0 5 0 -2 7 -4 SHEAR DIR 19 8 26 313 294 292 230 288 269 285 278 256 236 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 27.9 27.1 26.6 25.9 24.7 23.7 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 147 150 152 153 145 136 130 122 110 102 88 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -53.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 76 76 76 75 71 66 63 60 54 55 57 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 14 15 15 16 13 11 8 13 850 MB ENV VOR 27 25 27 22 18 7 -8 -21 -37 -59 -27 -27 -29 200 MB DIV 64 59 69 78 81 65 47 1 -6 0 17 36 46 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -4 -5 -2 1 2 5 5 9 22 39 LAND (KM) 1099 1103 1101 1108 1069 1071 1166 1317 1442 1526 1581 1508 1062 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.6 13.3 14.1 15.7 16.9 17.6 18.2 18.9 20.1 22.3 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 111.6 112.0 112.5 113.2 114.1 116.8 119.7 122.4 124.5 126.4 128.1 128.7 126.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 8 11 13 16 14 12 10 10 10 16 29 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 17 18 18 18 4 1 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 29. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. -1. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 4. 1. -3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 21. 27. 30. 31. 26. 21. 13. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 111.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912017 INVEST 10/14/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.58 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.15 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.55 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 57.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.6% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 17.8% 16.7% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 28.0% 17.1% 13.1% 8.3% 22.4% 29.9% 26.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 10.5% 2.3% 0.6% 0.3% 2.8% 2.6% 0.8% Consensus: 1.6% 19.3% 11.4% 4.6% 2.9% 14.3% 16.4% 9.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912017 INVEST 10/14/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##