* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912017 10/13/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 32 39 48 54 56 55 52 46 38 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 32 39 48 54 56 55 52 46 38 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 29 28 26 22 18 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 8 7 9 3 1 8 10 8 8 21 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 -2 -3 -1 -4 -1 0 2 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 32 31 48 38 32 288 288 267 294 257 248 243 251 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.2 27.4 26.2 25.1 24.0 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 144 145 146 151 153 148 139 126 115 103 94 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 4 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 77 76 77 78 77 77 74 70 64 61 57 55 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 13 15 15 15 14 12 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 37 36 38 42 46 32 13 -6 -27 -38 -51 -43 -56 200 MB DIV 59 76 84 74 88 92 60 38 4 -12 8 2 30 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -3 -7 -5 -4 -1 6 7 6 16 23 LAND (KM) 1012 1039 1073 1109 1141 1147 1136 1183 1259 1359 1437 1517 1431 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.6 13.5 14.8 16.2 17.5 18.7 19.9 21.3 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.1 111.7 112.3 113.0 114.5 116.6 119.0 121.6 123.9 126.2 128.2 128.7 STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 6 7 7 10 14 14 14 12 12 12 16 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 14 14 15 17 21 7 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 22. 29. 32. 34. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 12. 19. 28. 34. 36. 35. 32. 26. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.1 110.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912017 INVEST 10/13/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.58 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.25 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 37.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 18.6% 9.3% 4.5% 2.0% 14.8% 27.3% 33.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.9% Consensus: 0.8% 6.9% 3.2% 1.5% 0.7% 5.0% 9.3% 11.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912017 INVEST 10/13/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##