* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912017 08/04/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 27 25 22 20 17 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 25 22 20 17 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 22 21 21 19 18 13 12 7 9 11 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 0 -1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 55 62 74 88 98 107 119 133 155 178 213 220 233 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.1 27.5 26.9 26.2 26.2 25.9 25.4 24.9 24.7 24.6 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 148 141 135 127 126 122 117 112 109 108 106 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 70 65 62 61 62 58 55 54 51 45 42 38 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 7 5 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -18 -19 -21 -14 4 4 -4 -9 1 9 6 11 200 MB DIV 24 24 24 8 7 7 19 12 -10 -18 1 3 -5 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 0 0 0 4 0 1 1 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 443 515 492 530 638 832 1049 1250 1390 1535 1676 1824 1990 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 18.0 18.7 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.2 19.1 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.9 111.5 113.1 114.8 117.9 120.5 122.8 124.8 126.8 128.6 130.4 132.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 16 13 12 10 9 9 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 23 13 11 9 7 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 18. 22. 25. 26. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -9. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.2 108.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912017 INVEST 08/04/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.27 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.18 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.06 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 124.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912017 INVEST 08/04/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##