* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912017 08/04/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 29 26 23 21 19 17 16 15 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 29 26 23 21 19 17 16 15 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 23 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 20 21 19 19 16 16 13 12 9 15 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -1 0 -1 0 1 0 2 0 -1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 45 54 62 74 90 100 112 118 140 161 183 213 209 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.0 27.3 26.5 26.4 26.3 25.9 25.2 24.7 24.5 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 152 147 139 130 128 126 122 115 110 107 104 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 6 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 71 70 66 63 62 61 57 55 52 47 43 38 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 10 9 9 9 6 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -11 -19 -21 -21 -5 11 4 -6 -12 5 1 4 200 MB DIV 28 23 26 24 13 12 12 19 -6 -15 -19 10 -7 700-850 TADV -5 -1 -1 -3 0 -2 1 3 0 3 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 401 463 534 535 595 812 983 1149 1286 1396 1515 1654 1794 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.3 18.1 18.5 18.8 18.8 18.7 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 107.3 108.8 110.4 112.1 113.7 116.8 119.2 121.3 123.2 125.1 126.9 128.8 130.6 STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 16 15 13 11 9 9 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 32 20 13 10 8 3 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 19. 23. 26. 27. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.5 107.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912017 INVEST 08/04/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.18 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 113.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 2.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 2.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912017 INVEST 08/04/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##