* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912017 08/04/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 36 41 40 37 34 30 28 26 25 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 36 41 40 37 34 30 28 26 25 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 28 26 24 22 21 20 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 18 19 18 19 19 14 14 14 15 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 2 0 0 -2 -1 0 1 1 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 40 49 55 63 73 95 109 110 124 157 169 180 184 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.0 26.9 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.3 25.7 25.2 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 154 152 146 134 130 130 128 126 119 114 110 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 7 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 72 72 71 67 64 64 61 58 54 51 45 41 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 10 8 8 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -1 -6 -14 -17 -1 0 6 4 -9 -12 -8 -4 200 MB DIV 54 39 38 49 44 12 3 21 18 -8 -17 -3 -4 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -1 -1 -3 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 349 364 439 542 548 713 882 1052 1209 1338 1430 1518 1616 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.7 17.4 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.5 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 105.5 107.0 108.6 110.2 111.9 115.1 117.5 119.6 121.6 123.2 124.8 126.3 127.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 17 16 16 14 10 10 9 8 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 37 20 12 10 6 1 2 2 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 7. 13. 20. 24. 27. 29. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -3. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 11. 16. 15. 12. 9. 5. 3. 1. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.9 105.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912017 INVEST 08/04/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.07 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.21 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.41 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 2.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 88.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.6% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 17.6% 4.9% 2.1% 1.1% 11.1% 12.4% 4.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 12.0% 4.5% 0.8% 0.4% 6.3% 4.1% 1.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912017 INVEST 08/04/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##