* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912017 08/03/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 40 45 48 45 44 42 40 40 39 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 40 45 48 45 44 42 40 40 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 30 32 32 31 30 29 29 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 18 16 18 18 18 15 13 12 11 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 3 3 0 0 -2 0 -2 1 -2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 43 48 46 55 62 82 96 112 107 136 153 166 176 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.1 25.5 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 153 152 148 138 134 133 130 128 124 117 112 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 8 8 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 71 66 63 63 58 56 54 49 45 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 8 8 7 6 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -2 -1 -11 -22 -14 -2 0 -4 -13 -24 -9 -11 200 MB DIV 52 57 53 39 46 26 -2 0 14 -3 -8 -4 -6 700-850 TADV -4 -10 -10 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 1 2 LAND (KM) 369 407 454 568 654 745 913 1047 1182 1296 1415 1496 1612 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.6 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 104.5 106.1 107.7 109.5 111.1 114.1 116.6 118.7 120.7 122.4 124.1 125.7 127.4 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 17 17 16 13 11 10 9 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 32 36 27 11 11 5 3 9 3 2 1 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 29. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 15. 20. 23. 21. 19. 17. 15. 15. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.1 104.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912017 INVEST 08/03/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.23 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.22 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.44 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 2.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 67.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.1 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.7% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 9.3% 0.0% Logistic: 7.5% 38.6% 13.8% 6.7% 3.8% 32.4% 29.4% 17.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 15.1% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 23.5% 8.9% 2.4% 1.3% 14.3% 13.0% 5.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912017 INVEST 08/03/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##