* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912017 08/03/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 36 40 46 50 49 45 41 41 40 38 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 36 40 46 50 49 45 41 41 40 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 30 32 33 31 29 27 25 24 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 11 16 16 20 18 16 13 11 6 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 3 5 5 -1 -1 -1 -2 1 0 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 20 33 35 46 47 71 100 115 122 137 133 156 185 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 27.9 27.1 26.7 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.1 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 153 152 151 145 135 131 128 125 122 113 106 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 8 8 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 76 74 71 71 69 63 62 56 55 51 48 42 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 7 7 7 7 5 3 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -21 -12 -9 -12 -24 -9 -11 -14 -20 -33 -27 -7 200 MB DIV 56 55 60 67 46 20 0 -5 -7 16 -2 -1 -14 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -8 -8 0 -2 1 1 1 3 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 449 453 486 534 592 663 739 861 969 1079 1190 1252 1352 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.3 16.0 17.3 18.0 18.4 18.6 19.0 19.4 20.0 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 103.1 104.6 106.1 107.7 109.3 112.2 114.8 117.0 118.9 120.7 122.3 123.9 125.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 16 17 16 14 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 41 31 35 29 12 9 5 2 1 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 11. 15. 21. 25. 24. 20. 16. 16. 15. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 103.1 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912017 INVEST 08/03/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.31 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.28 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.47 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 64.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.1 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.2 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.1% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 10.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 22.5% 8.0% 3.9% 1.9% 9.9% 28.6% 15.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 5.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 1.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.1% 15.2% 6.9% 1.4% 0.6% 7.2% 13.2% 5.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912017 INVEST 08/03/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##