* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912017 08/01/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 38 45 54 58 60 61 59 54 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 38 45 54 58 60 61 59 54 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 27 29 33 37 40 42 41 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 16 13 15 14 16 14 18 21 22 29 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -4 -5 -4 -4 -2 -1 2 0 3 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 14 12 6 16 18 33 30 35 51 59 67 82 92 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.6 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 146 147 148 151 155 156 154 149 143 139 135 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 8 8 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 85 83 79 81 80 77 76 78 74 70 67 64 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 9 10 11 11 12 12 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 43 29 17 11 7 -1 -9 -6 2 -6 -7 -5 0 200 MB DIV 61 20 6 12 13 30 59 52 61 54 29 -2 0 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -2 -5 -1 -2 1 -2 2 0 1 -1 LAND (KM) 473 487 514 551 578 529 473 441 469 608 754 745 766 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.3 10.5 11.2 12.4 14.0 15.3 15.9 16.3 16.9 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 92.2 93.1 94.0 95.0 96.0 98.2 100.5 103.3 106.5 109.4 111.7 113.2 114.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 12 14 16 16 12 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 9 9 9 17 21 39 26 11 11 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 2. 3. 5. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 13. 20. 29. 33. 35. 36. 34. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.8 92.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912017 INVEST 08/01/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.16 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.09 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 1.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 16.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.88 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.7 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.4% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 9.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 3.7% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 1.3% 3.2% 12.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% Consensus: 0.2% 5.1% 2.4% 0.2% 0.1% 2.7% 4.4% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912017 INVEST 08/01/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##