* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912017 08/01/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 34 41 49 56 67 71 73 73 74 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 34 41 49 56 67 71 73 73 74 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 31 34 39 45 51 55 58 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 17 15 12 11 13 16 9 17 16 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 -2 -5 -5 -1 -4 -1 1 1 1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 22 17 16 21 18 27 41 31 33 57 61 63 71 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.8 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 148 148 148 148 149 155 158 153 146 139 139 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.9 -54.0 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.9 -52.9 -53.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 6 6 5 7 7 10 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 83 84 83 80 80 78 73 76 75 72 66 63 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 10 11 12 15 17 17 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR 55 52 34 15 3 -6 -17 -17 6 3 6 -4 -3 200 MB DIV 92 76 32 12 24 13 40 56 66 71 56 29 24 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 1 0 0 -1 -4 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 430 446 481 544 611 647 632 510 381 458 718 819 741 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.5 12.3 14.7 16.0 15.9 15.8 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 91.5 92.6 93.7 94.9 96.0 98.1 99.5 101.1 103.8 107.5 110.7 112.1 113.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 9 8 15 19 18 12 5 8 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 9 9 9 14 17 23 34 17 12 11 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 9. 11. 11. 10. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 16. 24. 31. 42. 46. 48. 48. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 91.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912017 INVEST 08/01/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.24 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.09 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.33 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 13.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.88 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.3% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 11.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 4.0% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 2.8% 4.7% 13.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% Consensus: 0.2% 6.3% 3.5% 0.3% 0.1% 4.2% 5.5% 4.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912017 INVEST 08/01/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##