* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912017 07/31/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 34 40 49 56 67 71 76 78 77 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 34 40 49 56 67 71 76 78 77 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 31 33 37 42 47 52 56 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 16 16 14 13 12 15 14 15 17 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 3 -1 -5 -5 -4 -2 -1 2 0 6 1 SHEAR DIR 16 11 11 8 10 13 31 34 42 42 51 55 71 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.0 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 147 149 149 151 151 153 153 152 151 144 141 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 81 84 84 83 79 80 78 75 75 73 68 63 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 15 15 17 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR 62 63 54 43 24 10 -5 -18 -13 -9 -6 -1 2 200 MB DIV 88 90 90 31 19 24 31 64 65 72 64 47 24 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 -3 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 417 420 440 442 460 533 540 561 532 499 591 726 730 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.7 9.9 10.2 10.5 10.9 11.2 11.8 13.1 14.6 15.5 15.9 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 90.0 90.6 91.5 92.5 93.7 96.2 98.8 101.1 103.4 106.0 108.8 110.8 112.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 10 11 12 13 12 12 14 15 13 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 10 9 9 10 18 21 38 30 13 12 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 15. 24. 31. 42. 46. 51. 53. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.5 90.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912017 INVEST 07/31/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.34 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.08 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.51 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 1.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.25 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 16.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.88 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.8% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 11.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 6.4% 2.3% 1.4% 0.5% 4.8% 11.5% 24.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.7% 1.7% Consensus: 0.5% 7.7% 4.2% 0.5% 0.2% 5.2% 8.4% 8.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912017 INVEST 07/31/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##