* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912017 05/30/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 37 41 43 45 45 45 47 47 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 29 37 41 43 45 45 45 47 47 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 24 23 22 22 22 23 24 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 7 10 12 13 11 10 9 8 6 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -6 -3 -3 -2 -1 -2 -1 -4 -2 -5 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 127 167 184 211 217 181 194 166 185 179 193 138 157 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 159 158 156 152 151 154 156 155 155 154 154 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -52.5 -53.0 -52.3 -52.8 -52.1 -52.4 -51.7 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 8 7 8 7 10 8 12 9 700-500 MB RH 83 82 82 78 75 69 65 64 64 63 61 58 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 51 54 65 66 65 63 60 55 52 56 45 44 37 200 MB DIV 97 114 135 146 118 125 59 56 32 48 55 15 13 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 LAND (KM) 337 272 220 185 158 154 183 190 173 117 89 72 71 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.1 14.9 14.8 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 98.5 98.5 98.6 99.0 99.3 99.9 100.1 99.8 99.2 98.6 98.1 97.8 97.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 5 2 2 3 3 3 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 30 28 26 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 23 22 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 14. 23. 30. 35. 37. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 17. 21. 23. 25. 25. 25. 27. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.0 98.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912017 INVEST 05/30/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.82 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 2.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912017 INVEST 05/30/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##