* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912017 05/30/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 30 33 40 47 49 50 48 47 48 49 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 30 33 40 47 49 50 48 47 48 49 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 27 28 28 26 25 25 25 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 4 5 7 10 13 13 9 11 5 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -9 -8 -8 -3 -3 0 -2 -1 -5 -2 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 75 75 113 174 183 203 188 212 182 215 209 180 142 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 160 160 160 157 153 153 153 154 155 153 152 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -53.2 -52.5 -53.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 8 7 9 7 10 8 11 700-500 MB RH 82 82 82 81 81 78 73 69 65 63 62 60 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 42 42 45 48 60 55 60 49 51 52 58 37 40 200 MB DIV 133 116 101 115 139 109 126 54 47 42 46 16 17 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 485 439 383 317 280 218 185 204 204 206 168 154 154 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.1 12.6 13.2 13.6 14.4 14.9 14.8 14.8 14.7 14.9 14.9 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 98.8 98.7 98.6 98.6 98.8 99.3 99.7 99.9 99.9 99.7 99.3 99.0 99.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 5 5 5 1 1 1 1 2 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 36 34 34 33 32 28 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 14. 23. 30. 35. 37. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. -0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 13. 20. 27. 29. 30. 28. 27. 28. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.7 98.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912017 INVEST 05/30/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 33.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.81 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -8.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.91 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912017 INVEST 05/30/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##