* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912017 05/29/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 30 35 43 50 56 56 55 54 54 52 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 30 35 43 50 56 56 55 54 54 52 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 24 28 31 33 33 32 31 31 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 8 5 5 6 11 12 13 9 8 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -8 -7 -8 -5 -5 -1 -2 0 -2 -2 -7 SHEAR DIR 85 93 89 96 114 189 200 189 205 190 193 168 166 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 158 160 160 158 155 151 151 153 153 154 155 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -53.2 -52.5 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.2 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 7 6 8 7 9 7 9 8 700-500 MB RH 82 81 81 81 80 79 75 68 65 62 62 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 37 45 50 54 52 68 60 64 48 48 44 47 35 200 MB DIV 105 123 132 101 98 109 103 124 52 31 39 53 35 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 516 481 433 379 325 249 214 206 239 274 306 303 304 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.8 12.2 12.7 13.2 14.1 14.7 15.0 14.8 14.5 14.1 14.0 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 99.2 99.1 98.9 98.9 98.9 99.3 99.9 100.4 100.7 100.8 100.6 100.3 100.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 5 5 4 4 1 2 3 1 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 39 37 34 34 33 29 26 26 26 28 30 30 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 5. 14. 23. 30. 35. 37. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 23. 30. 36. 36. 35. 34. 34. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.5 99.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912017 INVEST 05/29/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -0.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912017 INVEST 05/29/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##