* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 10/23/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 48 58 66 75 76 75 69 62 54 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 48 58 66 75 76 75 69 62 54 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 41 46 54 63 72 72 66 55 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 11 10 10 10 2 2 6 10 12 16 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -1 0 -2 2 -2 0 0 2 9 -1 SHEAR DIR 274 306 340 2 24 49 29 308 254 257 248 230 240 SST (C) 29.8 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.1 26.9 26.3 25.7 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 162 161 159 159 158 156 155 146 133 126 119 111 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 72 74 71 70 68 66 67 67 70 66 65 56 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 9 8 9 8 10 12 14 12 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR -71 -59 -35 -31 -22 -17 -18 -24 -7 -6 -24 -13 1 200 MB DIV 76 81 85 102 107 108 92 46 69 59 86 58 25 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 -4 -5 -5 -2 -2 -3 0 2 -1 9 LAND (KM) 544 567 598 642 690 768 901 989 1159 1240 1279 1262 1168 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 12 11 10 12 13 13 12 11 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 48 46 39 40 34 19 23 25 25 8 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 27.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 19. 24. 26. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 5. 7. 10. 7. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 28. 36. 45. 46. 45. 39. 32. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.8 103.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 10/23/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 4.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.87 6.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 41.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.55 4.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.78 6.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.69 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 63.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.81 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.48 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 3.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 39% is 5.5 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 48% is 8.2 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 15.6% 47.8% 30.0% 17.9% 0.0% 38.9% 48.4% Logistic: 29.4% 64.6% 56.1% 44.0% 33.2% 59.1% 69.6% Bayesian: 8.7% 32.4% 14.8% 4.2% 1.3% 17.6% 10.6% Consensus: 17.9% 48.2% 33.6% 22.0% 11.5% 38.5% 42.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 10/23/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##