* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 10/22/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 30 37 46 48 52 53 53 50 45 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 30 37 46 48 52 53 53 50 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 29 31 33 33 31 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 8 10 14 15 10 1 9 10 13 16 22 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 -3 -3 0 1 -1 -4 0 0 1 6 SHEAR DIR 278 265 275 284 301 338 327 254 269 269 249 233 246 SST (C) 29.8 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.1 28.6 27.9 26.7 25.7 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 164 166 165 164 163 163 162 156 151 144 131 120 110 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 8 8 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 75 76 75 74 70 66 64 63 65 63 61 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 6 5 6 7 8 6 7 9 10 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR -44 -55 -61 -60 -44 -23 -18 -18 -20 -22 -37 -34 -23 200 MB DIV 46 61 83 71 64 63 66 74 41 40 61 79 51 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 -2 -6 -1 2 3 3 8 6 -3 LAND (KM) 514 514 513 501 488 536 591 715 756 874 994 1049 1028 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 13 32 51 53 47 51 22 22 15 19 7 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 21. 27. 30. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 4. 6. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 5. 12. 21. 23. 27. 28. 28. 25. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 100.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 10/22/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.95 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 39.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.52 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 27.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.56 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 10/22/16 18 UTC ##