* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 10/22/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 36 42 47 49 50 50 48 44 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 36 42 47 49 50 50 48 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 29 29 29 31 32 32 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 9 14 17 14 6 6 11 11 19 19 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 0 -2 0 0 -3 -3 -3 0 -2 4 SHEAR DIR 284 275 273 279 288 314 340 263 254 252 256 245 239 SST (C) 29.1 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.4 28.8 28.3 27.5 26.1 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 164 166 166 165 165 163 159 152 148 140 126 115 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -52.6 -53.1 -52.7 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 6 6 8 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 72 72 75 78 76 72 70 65 64 63 60 61 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 7 9 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -47 -53 -58 -62 -32 -9 -17 -20 -18 -44 -37 -21 200 MB DIV 35 46 67 78 74 75 65 79 51 23 28 53 77 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 0 -2 -4 -4 -1 2 6 5 5 3 LAND (KM) 479 487 506 491 473 498 560 655 666 715 848 952 1090 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 14 13 13 13 12 11 9 10 10 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 7 14 32 52 53 53 25 21 21 15 13 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 12.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 21. 27. 30. 32. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 17. 22. 24. 25. 25. 23. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 99.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 10/22/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.94 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.42 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 29.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.50 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 10/22/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##