* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 10/22/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 39 45 54 55 55 55 53 50 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 39 45 54 55 55 55 53 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 32 33 34 36 37 38 37 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 3 7 11 15 10 4 6 12 17 20 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 1 0 -3 0 -3 -1 -5 -3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 327 12 343 301 307 328 6 49 244 261 254 255 239 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.4 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.5 29.3 28.8 28.0 27.1 26.1 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 159 164 163 161 161 159 154 145 135 125 120 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 72 74 72 72 67 64 62 62 60 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 9 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -45 -45 -49 -54 -42 -21 -13 -31 -39 -33 -31 -12 200 MB DIV 49 37 48 57 78 66 80 85 73 40 55 46 84 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 0 0 -2 -4 -2 0 3 3 2 1 LAND (KM) 540 544 544 565 582 586 646 743 767 829 949 1090 1192 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.2 13.3 14.3 15.4 16.6 17.6 18.1 18.4 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 98.2 99.0 100.0 101.2 102.5 105.3 108.0 110.6 113.0 115.6 118.0 120.3 122.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 11 13 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 3 5 8 16 33 39 37 19 16 18 10 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 12.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 27. 29. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 20. 29. 30. 30. 30. 28. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.1 98.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 10/22/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 52.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.50 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 10/22/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##