* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 10/22/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 21 21 24 30 38 46 48 48 47 46 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 21 21 24 30 38 46 48 48 47 46 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 19 19 18 18 19 20 21 21 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 4 2 5 13 10 9 2 4 8 10 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 3 4 3 1 2 0 -1 0 -3 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 314 319 306 320 285 321 2 48 89 263 267 248 233 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.4 29.7 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.6 27.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 151 154 159 163 158 157 158 155 155 152 138 125 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -52.8 -53.3 -52.9 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 9 8 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 67 70 71 70 72 75 74 72 65 64 62 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -39 -38 -33 -38 -44 -43 -20 -30 -33 -30 -37 -53 200 MB DIV 48 54 48 56 62 59 57 72 62 37 22 21 47 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 4 2 -3 -2 -2 0 3 3 5 2 LAND (KM) 540 542 551 576 609 661 696 779 883 933 1000 1104 1175 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.5 12.2 13.0 13.7 14.6 15.4 16.3 17.0 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 97.6 98.3 99.3 100.3 101.5 104.2 106.8 109.3 111.6 114.0 116.5 118.9 121.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 10 11 12 14 13 12 12 13 13 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 2 4 7 9 16 36 30 22 22 24 28 14 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 22. 29. 32. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 10. 18. 26. 28. 28. 27. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.0 97.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 10/22/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.91 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 43.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.1 to -1.7 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 10/22/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##