* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 10/21/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 21 23 29 35 40 46 50 52 52 51 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 21 23 29 35 40 46 50 52 52 51 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 18 19 20 22 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 3 3 3 8 11 10 14 5 8 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 3 4 0 2 1 -2 0 -3 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 331 318 325 343 322 307 353 6 33 45 277 272 229 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.2 29.5 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.2 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 150 152 157 161 156 156 155 155 155 148 132 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 8 6 5 700-500 MB RH 66 68 70 71 71 72 72 73 69 66 63 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 5 4 5 7 8 7 7 6 7 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -28 -36 -36 -34 -48 -48 -36 -21 -25 -30 -33 -40 200 MB DIV 36 56 67 61 57 74 55 76 54 48 17 31 52 700-850 TADV 2 1 1 2 2 -1 -4 -4 -5 -2 2 1 4 LAND (KM) 529 538 551 568 589 648 686 749 845 961 983 1074 1191 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.6 12.2 12.8 13.4 14.2 15.3 16.4 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 97.0 97.5 98.2 99.1 100.1 102.6 105.0 107.4 109.9 112.2 114.8 117.6 120.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 8 9 11 13 12 13 12 13 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 3 6 8 26 29 26 20 33 25 24 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 22. 29. 32. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 26. 30. 32. 32. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.0 97.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 10/21/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.84 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 44.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.1 to -1.7 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 10/21/16 18 UTC ##