* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 09/07/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 21 20 22 24 25 27 27 27 26 25 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 21 20 22 24 25 27 27 27 26 25 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 25 21 17 13 8 14 11 18 18 22 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 4 3 0 -3 -3 0 -3 -1 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 35 29 37 32 14 355 311 287 271 267 265 254 258 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.4 26.7 26.1 25.6 25.0 24.2 23.2 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 147 145 137 129 123 118 112 102 91 87 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 59 60 63 65 64 61 58 54 49 43 41 38 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 4 -3 -3 -23 -50 -67 -65 -59 -50 -61 -51 -43 200 MB DIV 58 51 46 33 24 18 3 -1 0 -17 -19 -17 -9 700-850 TADV -4 -9 -10 -8 -3 1 2 3 4 6 5 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 1552 1509 1455 1416 1370 1275 1222 1165 1152 1147 1160 1131 1034 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.9 14.5 15.1 15.9 17.5 18.9 20.1 21.0 22.1 22.9 23.8 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 121.0 120.9 120.9 121.1 121.4 121.8 122.3 122.8 123.6 124.5 125.2 125.4 124.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 8 8 7 6 6 7 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 30 31 28 24 19 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 31. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -4. -4. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.5 121.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 09/07/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 80.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.39 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 09/07/16 12 UTC ##