* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 09/07/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 23 21 20 18 13 8 16 12 14 14 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 9 7 8 6 0 0 -2 -1 0 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 32 34 30 24 32 11 322 305 300 286 272 270 247 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 27.8 26.9 26.2 25.5 24.5 23.4 22.5 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 148 148 142 133 125 117 106 94 84 80 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -53.3 -53.2 -52.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 56 59 61 61 64 63 58 52 47 44 40 37 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 9 7 6 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 31 27 18 7 -21 -40 -52 -26 -25 -25 -34 -28 200 MB DIV 23 50 74 66 57 8 6 2 0 -16 -7 -12 -19 700-850 TADV 3 -1 -7 -12 -13 -3 4 1 0 0 -3 -3 -12 LAND (KM) 1632 1586 1540 1491 1456 1366 1316 1244 1204 1185 1177 1128 1015 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.2 13.5 14.1 14.8 16.6 18.5 20.1 21.5 22.6 23.6 24.5 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 121.7 121.1 120.8 120.9 121.3 122.1 123.1 123.9 124.7 125.3 125.8 125.7 124.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 5 7 9 10 10 8 7 6 5 4 8 HEAT CONTENT 29 30 30 28 25 16 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 11 CX,CY: 11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 805 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -8. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. -3. -2. -3. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.1 121.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 09/07/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.37 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 78.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.30 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 29.3 81.4 to 0.0 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 09/07/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##