* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 09/06/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 19 18 18 19 18 20 22 22 21 18 V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 19 18 18 19 18 20 22 22 21 18 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 19 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 23 21 17 12 10 10 10 9 9 14 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 6 5 6 0 0 -1 1 0 2 2 6 SHEAR DIR 47 42 44 43 36 24 8 308 328 281 280 238 219 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.0 27.0 25.9 24.6 23.3 22.1 21.3 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 152 152 151 144 135 123 108 94 82 74 66 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 58 61 62 62 64 58 50 43 41 36 35 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 7 6 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 23 25 20 17 5 -13 -30 -17 -3 -13 -26 -14 200 MB DIV 8 23 52 70 51 48 8 4 -2 0 -14 -9 4 700-850 TADV 3 2 -2 -4 -8 -4 0 1 -1 -1 -8 -10 -20 LAND (KM) 1617 1531 1455 1392 1344 1243 1178 1111 1051 995 927 786 580 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.2 13.5 14.0 14.7 16.4 18.4 20.5 22.3 23.8 25.3 26.9 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 121.6 120.3 119.6 119.3 119.4 120.2 121.4 122.5 123.5 123.9 123.9 123.2 121.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 6 6 8 10 12 11 9 7 9 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 30 31 35 35 30 19 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 11 CX,CY: 11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 872 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 14. 21. 26. 29. 30. 30. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -8. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. 0. 2. 2. 1. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.2 121.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 09/06/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.42 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.45 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 76.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.29 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 38.5 81.4 to 0.0 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 09/06/16 18 UTC ##