* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 09/06/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 24 24 25 28 29 34 39 40 40 40 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 24 24 25 28 29 34 39 40 40 40 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 17 17 18 18 18 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 15 20 21 19 21 12 3 2 7 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 8 6 6 4 -1 0 0 2 -2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 79 63 57 47 44 44 54 91 21 113 245 261 276 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 146 147 146 147 149 147 143 138 135 132 129 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 58 55 54 55 55 58 58 55 53 54 53 49 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 9 8 8 7 6 4 3 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 34 38 47 38 36 23 4 -3 0 -2 1 -1 200 MB DIV 24 19 14 15 22 46 43 38 34 45 30 26 10 700-850 TADV 5 5 7 6 4 3 -6 -4 2 2 2 5 3 LAND (KM) 1885 1877 1885 1908 1932 1940 1952 1905 1844 1780 1757 1770 1845 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.5 13.4 13.2 13.1 13.4 14.0 15.2 16.1 17.0 17.6 18.3 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 125.7 125.6 125.6 125.7 125.9 126.3 127.0 127.5 127.7 127.8 128.1 128.9 130.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 2 2 4 6 6 5 4 4 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 33 34 34 32 30 28 24 20 16 12 12 10 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 31. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 8. 9. 14. 19. 20. 20. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.5 125.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 09/06/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.11 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 95.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.38 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 81.4 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.7% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 09/06/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##