* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 07/31/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 36 39 42 42 44 39 37 34 32 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 36 39 42 42 44 39 37 34 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 27 28 27 26 24 22 21 20 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 4 1 3 3 6 6 9 10 9 11 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 0 -2 1 -4 -2 -6 -4 -5 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 339 319 317 280 225 263 235 214 205 226 242 260 269 SST (C) 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.6 25.9 24.8 24.2 23.8 23.4 23.6 24.3 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 131 131 130 124 112 106 102 97 99 107 112 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 71 68 66 64 64 59 55 52 53 48 46 41 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 14 13 13 12 13 10 10 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -1 -4 0 0 -13 -14 -18 -14 -11 -8 -8 -11 200 MB DIV 58 38 44 48 38 5 12 -10 9 -6 8 17 -24 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -5 -4 -1 0 0 2 2 -1 -1 2 -4 LAND (KM) 1439 1444 1456 1498 1546 1648 1745 1904 2085 1894 1644 1387 1142 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 11 13 14 14 13 13 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 16 13 11 9 13 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 10.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 1. -3. -3. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 17. 17. 19. 14. 12. 9. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.2 120.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 07/31/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.64 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.16 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.76 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.38 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 102.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.76 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.51 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.89 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.7% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.2% 38.4% 20.9% 14.2% 7.9% 12.7% 8.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% Consensus: 2.8% 22.5% 13.1% 4.8% 2.7% 4.3% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 07/31/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##